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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+5.87vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+5.43vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.69+2.28vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.82+3.97vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.81-0.20vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania3.12+1.05vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-0.19vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-1.98vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.27+1.05vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.68-1.19vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.95-3.25vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University2.31-1.76vs Predicted
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13Princeton University2.35-3.32vs Predicted
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14Drexel University1.35-1.13vs Predicted
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15Villanova University0.91-0.65vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech0.59-0.81vs Predicted
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17Hampton University1.08-2.99vs Predicted
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18William and Mary0.21-2.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.87St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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7.43SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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5.28Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.97Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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4.8Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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7.05University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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6.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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6.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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10.05Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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8.81George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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7.75Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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10.24Christopher Newport University2.310.0%1st Place
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9.68Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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12.87Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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14.35Villanova University0.910.0%1st Place
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15.19Virginia Tech0.590.0%1st Place
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14.01Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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15.8William and Mary0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| JC Hermus | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sean Segerblom | 16.8% | 15.6% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Carrson Pearce | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hector Guzman | 9.3% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Logue | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Toby Sullivan | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 11.5% | 6.3% |
| Owen Ward | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 15.8% | 18.9% | 15.6% |
| Christopher Magno | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 15.0% | 22.3% | 25.3% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 19.1% | 16.6% | 12.3% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 12.2% | 23.0% | 38.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.