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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+4.80vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.16+6.51vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University1.89+6.45vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.88+5.15vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.74+1.22vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.30-1.43vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+2.59vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.38-3.67vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.20-0.93vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-4.81vs Predicted
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11Villanova University1.57-0.48vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.03-2.95vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.93-4.00vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech0.47-0.28vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.58-1.32vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.48-1.95vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.37-2.68vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.35-2.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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8.51Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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9.45Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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9.15SUNY Maritime College1.880.0%1st Place
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6.22George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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4.57U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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9.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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4.33Georgetown University3.380.2%1st Place
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8.07Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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5.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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10.52Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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9.05University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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9.0Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.72Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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13.68Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
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14.05Hampton University0.480.0%1st Place
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14.32William and Mary0.370.0%1st Place
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15.77Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Cooper | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Charney | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Cormac Murphy | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Michael Ehnot | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 14.8% | 15.0% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Welker | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Jack Reiter | 15.8% | 18.0% | 14.9% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 13.9% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Gillette | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 16.8% | 12.1% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 11.6% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 16.3% | 17.2% | 14.4% |
| Connor Chapin | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 14.5% | 19.9% | 17.1% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 19.6% | 41.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.