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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.16+7.70vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University1.89+7.68vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.20+5.47vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+1.12vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.18+3.31vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.30-1.23vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94-1.25vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.74-1.64vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.43-1.52vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.38-5.39vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.88-1.44vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.47+2.25vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-3.37vs Predicted
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14Villanova University1.57-3.69vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.58-1.26vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.48-1.87vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.37-2.65vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-0.35-2.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.7Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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9.68Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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8.47Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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5.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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8.31Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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4.77U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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5.75St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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6.36George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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7.48University of Pennsylvania2.430.1%1st Place
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4.61Georgetown University3.380.2%1st Place
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9.56SUNY Maritime College1.880.0%1st Place
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14.25Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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9.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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10.31Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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13.74Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
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14.13Hampton University0.480.0%1st Place
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14.35William and Mary0.370.0%1st Place
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15.77Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Snyder | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Charney | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Jake Vickers | 13.0% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 14.1% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lewis Cooper | 11.2% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Ehnot | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lenox Butcher | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Reiter | 16.6% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cormac Murphy | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 16.1% | 19.4% | 14.4% |
| Luke Welker | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Max Gillette | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 14.3% | 16.6% | 13.9% | 11.0% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 16.2% | 16.7% | 14.4% |
| Connor Chapin | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 19.5% | 16.7% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 12.4% | 20.5% | 40.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.