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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.30+3.91vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.20+6.51vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+2.96vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.74+2.35vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+0.17vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.38-1.49vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+2.84vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.16+0.35vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.88+0.40vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.18-1.37vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.89-1.52vs Predicted
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12Villanova University1.57-1.14vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.47+0.93vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.43-6.70vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.58-1.20vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.48-1.88vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.18-1.33vs Predicted
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18William and Mary0.37-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.91U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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8.51Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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5.96St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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6.35George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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5.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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4.51Georgetown University3.380.2%1st Place
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9.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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8.35Fordham University2.160.1%1st Place
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9.4SUNY Maritime College1.880.0%1st Place
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8.63Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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9.48Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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10.86Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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13.93Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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7.3University of Pennsylvania2.430.1%1st Place
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13.8Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
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14.12Hampton University0.480.0%1st Place
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15.67Princeton University-0.180.0%1st Place
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14.21William and Mary0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Loftus | 13.7% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lewis Cooper | 9.4% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Ehnot | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 14.0% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Reiter | 15.9% | 15.7% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Welker | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Cormac Murphy | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Charney | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Max Gillette | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 1.2% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 16.1% | 15.5% |
| Lenox Butcher | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 17.3% | 11.5% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 16.0% | 15.5% | 15.3% |
| Connor Larson | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 19.0% | 39.1% |
| Connor Chapin | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 16.7% | 18.5% | 15.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.