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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+4.96vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.20+6.56vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.30+1.86vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.38+0.44vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.43+2.52vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-0.75vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.74-0.52vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.16+0.40vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.88+0.44vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.89-0.40vs Predicted
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11Villanova University1.57-0.33vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.47+2.33vs Predicted
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13Drexel University0.58+0.62vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-4.41vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.18-6.67vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.48-1.89vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-0.18-1.33vs Predicted
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18William and Mary0.37-3.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.96St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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8.56Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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4.86U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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4.44Georgetown University3.380.2%1st Place
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7.52University of Pennsylvania2.430.1%1st Place
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5.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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6.48George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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8.4Fordham University2.160.1%1st Place
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9.44SUNY Maritime College1.880.0%1st Place
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9.6Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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10.67Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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14.33Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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13.62Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
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9.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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8.33Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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14.11Hampton University0.480.0%1st Place
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15.67Princeton University-0.180.0%1st Place
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14.19William and Mary0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Cooper | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Parker Loftus | 13.1% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Reiter | 16.4% | 17.2% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lenox Butcher | 6.4% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jake Vickers | 12.1% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Ehnot | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Cormac Murphy | 3.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Charney | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| Max Gillette | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 21.3% | 14.9% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 16.0% | 14.7% | 12.3% |
| Luke Welker | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 16.3% | 15.3% |
| Connor Larson | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 18.6% | 39.1% |
| Connor Chapin | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 17.7% | 16.9% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.