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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.30+3.90vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.38+2.59vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+7.11vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+1.78vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.43+2.47vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-0.77vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.74-0.51vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.93+1.29vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.20-0.67vs Predicted
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10William and Mary0.37+4.70vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.16-2.35vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.75+1.67vs Predicted
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13Villanova University1.57-2.49vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.88-4.78vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.58-1.00vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech0.47-1.71vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University1.89-7.35vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.48-3.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.9U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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4.59Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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10.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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5.78St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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7.47University of Pennsylvania2.430.1%1st Place
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5.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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6.49George Washington University2.740.1%1st Place
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9.29Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.33Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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14.7William and Mary0.370.0%1st Place
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8.65Fordham University2.160.1%1st Place
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13.67Princeton University0.750.0%1st Place
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10.51Villanova University1.570.0%1st Place
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9.22SUNY Maritime College1.880.0%1st Place
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14.0Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
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14.29Virginia Tech0.470.0%1st Place
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9.65Christopher Newport University1.890.0%1st Place
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14.11Hampton University0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Loftus | 13.6% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Reiter | 14.0% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Welker | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Lewis Cooper | 11.1% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lenox Butcher | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 12.4% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Ehnot | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Connor Chapin | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 18.9% | 25.1% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Anne Sidamon-Eristoff | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 15.4% | 15.3% |
| Max Gillette | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Cormac Murphy | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 17.1% | 16.2% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 20.7% |
| Spencer Charney | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 17.2% | 16.6% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.