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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+2.58vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+5.00vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.44+4.42vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.40+3.64vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.21+3.10vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.880.00vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.31+0.87vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.55-1.11vs Predicted
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9University of Connecticut2.51+2.05vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College3.55-3.11vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.05-2.29vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91+0.95vs Predicted
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13Bates College2.26-1.27vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.70-3.71vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.23-6.69vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy1.62-2.34vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont3.11-8.32vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College1.85-4.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.58U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.2%1st Place
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7.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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7.42Connecticut College3.440.1%1st Place
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7.64Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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8.1Tufts University3.210.0%1st Place
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6.0Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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7.87Roger Williams University3.310.1%1st Place
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6.89Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
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11.05University of Connecticut2.510.0%1st Place
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6.89Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
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8.71Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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12.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.0%1st Place
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11.73Bates College2.260.0%1st Place
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10.29Northeastern University2.700.0%1st Place
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8.31Yale University3.230.0%1st Place
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13.66Maine Maritime Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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8.68University of Vermont3.110.0%1st Place
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13.12Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ingham | 24.8% | 18.0% | 14.2% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Miller | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| David Liebenberg | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alex Cook | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Josh Saltmarsh | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Bainbridge | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sean Andrew | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Bainbridge | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Drew Shea | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Chronert | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 17.8% | 21.7% | 0.0% |
| David Pierce | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 14.3% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Ryan White | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Rob Struckett | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hulse | 0.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 17.7% | 30.2% | 0.0% |
| Quentin Chafee | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 18.0% | 21.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.