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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.44+6.19vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University2.70+8.12vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+0.64vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+3.14vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.23+3.02vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.55+1.14vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.21+1.25vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.05+0.73vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.55-1.86vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.31-1.97vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.88-5.20vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.11-3.23vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College1.85+0.03vs Predicted
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14University of Connecticut2.51-3.01vs Predicted
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15Bates College2.26-3.09vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.40-8.47vs Predicted
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17Maine Maritime Academy1.62-3.22vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.91-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.19Connecticut College3.440.1%1st Place
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10.12Northeastern University2.700.0%1st Place
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3.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.2%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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8.02Yale University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.14Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
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8.25Tufts University3.210.1%1st Place
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8.73Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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7.14Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
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8.03Roger Williams University3.310.1%1st Place
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5.8Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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8.77University of Vermont3.110.1%1st Place
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13.03Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
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10.99University of Connecticut2.510.0%1st Place
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11.91Bates College2.260.0%1st Place
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7.53Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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13.78Maine Maritime Academy1.620.0%1st Place
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12.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Miller | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan White | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 21.9% | 20.8% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rob Struckett | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Bainbridge | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Liebenberg | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Drew Shea | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Bainbridge | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Saltmarsh | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Alex Cook | 10.3% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Quentin Chafee | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 13.3% | 17.2% | 21.8% | 0.0% |
| Sean Andrew | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| David Pierce | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hulse | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 16.5% | 30.6% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Chronert | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 18.1% | 20.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.