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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.71+2.19vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.00+2.78vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.77+0.13vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.94+0.83vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy2.08-0.35vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.24+4.99vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.12+2.98vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.41+1.34vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University-0.58+2.94vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-2.90vs Predicted
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11University of Washington0.77-2.99vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.10-1.06vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.29-1.92vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-1.11-0.28vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.15-4.25vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay-1.70-0.98vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay-1.70-1.98vs Predicted
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18Santa Clara University-2.35-1.60vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands-2.97-1.50vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-2.53-3.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.19University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.2%1st Place
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4.78University of Southern California2.000.1%1st Place
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3.13Stanford University2.770.3%1st Place
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4.83University of Hawaii1.940.1%1st Place
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4.65California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.1%1st Place
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10.99University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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9.98University of California at Santa Cruz0.120.0%1st Place
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9.34University of California at Davis0.410.0%1st Place
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11.94Western Washington University-0.580.0%1st Place
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7.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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8.01University of Washington0.770.0%1st Place
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10.94University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.08San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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13.72University of California at Berkeley-1.110.0%1st Place
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10.75University of California at San Diego-0.150.0%1st Place
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15.02California State University Monterey Bay-1.700.0%1st Place
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15.02California State University Monterey Bay-1.700.0%1st Place
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16.4Santa Clara University-2.350.0%1st Place
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17.5California State University Channel Islands-2.970.0%1st Place
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16.64Arizona State University-2.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Eastwood | 24.1% | 19.8% | 17.9% | 14.9% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Paulsen | 11.5% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Lim | 25.4% | 20.5% | 17.5% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 10.3% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 9.3% | 13.4% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alexis Miller | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Samuels | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Tan | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddie Ekin | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gignac | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 15.9% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Molly Rowland | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Graves | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 18.3% | 14.5% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Graves | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 18.3% | 14.5% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Gaby Ahlstrom | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 11.5% | 18.6% | 24.1% | 21.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 14.9% | 22.4% | 43.7% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 10.4% | 18.1% | 24.3% | 25.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.