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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.91+2.07vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.71+3.72vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.68+0.56vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.05+0.89vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-0.79vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.82-0.57vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.75+1.22vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.09+2.77vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.75+4.70vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis0.37-0.34vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.10+0.15vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.58+1.11vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+1.60vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.02+0.91vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-1.43+1.37vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-0.60-2.96vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-3.66vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.36-2.27vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.44-2.98vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-2.87-0.06vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-2.65-1.59vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-1.46-5.86vs Predicted
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23Arizona State University-2.65-3.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.07University of California at Santa Barbara2.910.3%1st Place
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5.72University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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3.56University of California at Santa Barbara2.680.2%1st Place
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4.89California Poly Maritime Academy2.050.1%1st Place
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4.21University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.2%1st Place
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5.43University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.1%1st Place
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8.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.750.0%1st Place
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10.77University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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13.7University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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9.66University of California at Davis0.370.0%1st Place
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11.15University of California at Berkeley-0.100.0%1st Place
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13.11University of California at San Diego-0.580.0%1st Place
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14.6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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14.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.020.0%1st Place
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16.37University of California at Davis-1.430.0%1st Place
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13.04University of California at San Diego-0.600.0%1st Place
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13.34University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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15.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.360.0%1st Place
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16.02University of California at San Diego-1.440.0%1st Place
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19.94University of California at San Diego-2.870.0%1st Place
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19.41Arizona State University-2.650.0%1st Place
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16.14University of California at Los Angeles-1.460.0%1st Place
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19.41Arizona State University-2.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Long | 26.0% | 21.2% | 18.1% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sampson Reynolds | 8.3% | 6.8% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sidney Gathrid | 18.2% | 20.0% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Collins | 10.7% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 15.3% | 15.0% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Haranzo | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Canyon Breyer | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Dave OG | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Arnold | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tobie Bloom | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Martin | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Dashel Peters | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Anthony El-Sokkary | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Marie-Laure Golier | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Kaden Caliendo | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hughes | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Jay Tapadiya | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 22.2% | 45.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Everson | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 21.8% | 35.5% | 0.0% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Everson | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 21.8% | 35.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.