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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.91+2.05vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.68+1.50vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy2.05+1.99vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.71+1.73vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+0.41vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-1.83vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.75+1.25vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.09+2.75vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.75+4.69vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.10+1.25vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-1.43+5.00vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis0.37-2.28vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.60+0.16vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.44+2.33vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.58-1.64vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99-1.56vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.02-2.14vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.46-1.86vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.36-3.22vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-2.65-0.50vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-2.87-1.14vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-8.96vs Predicted
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23Arizona State University-2.65-3.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.05University of California at Santa Barbara2.910.3%1st Place
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3.5University of California at Santa Barbara2.680.2%1st Place
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4.99California Poly Maritime Academy2.050.1%1st Place
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5.73University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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5.41University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.1%1st Place
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4.17University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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8.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.750.0%1st Place
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10.75University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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13.69University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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11.25University of California at Berkeley-0.100.0%1st Place
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16.0University of California at Davis-1.430.0%1st Place
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9.72University of California at Davis0.370.0%1st Place
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13.16University of California at San Diego-0.600.0%1st Place
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16.33University of California at San Diego-1.440.0%1st Place
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13.36University of California at San Diego-0.580.0%1st Place
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14.44University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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14.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.020.0%1st Place
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16.14University of California at Los Angeles-1.460.0%1st Place
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15.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.360.0%1st Place
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19.5Arizona State University-2.650.0%1st Place
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19.86University of California at San Diego-2.870.0%1st Place
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13.04University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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19.5Arizona State University-2.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Long | 26.5% | 19.9% | 17.6% | 13.7% | 11.3% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sidney Gathrid | 20.2% | 21.4% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Collins | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sampson Reynolds | 7.2% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 8.7% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 13.7% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Haranzo | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Canyon Breyer | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Arnold | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anthony El-Sokkary | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Dave OG | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marie-Laure Golier | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hughes | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Tobie Bloom | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Martin | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Dashel Peters | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Kaden Caliendo | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Everson | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 25.6% | 34.8% | 0.0% |
| Jay Tapadiya | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 18.0% | 45.8% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Everson | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 25.6% | 34.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.