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📊 Prediction Accuracy
39.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+4.43vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.91+1.04vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+1.26vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.05+0.89vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.09+5.58vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.75+2.49vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University-2.65+12.20vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.71-2.24vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.68-5.55vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+4.48vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.75+2.42vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.60+1.15vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.02+1.59vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.37-4.12vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.58-1.74vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.36-0.29vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.46-0.74vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-2.87+1.86vs Predicted
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19University of California at Berkeley-0.10-7.91vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-6.83vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-1.44-5.06vs Predicted
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22Arizona State University-2.65-2.80vs Predicted
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23University of California at Davis-1.76-5.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.43University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.1%1st Place
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3.04University of California at Santa Barbara2.910.3%1st Place
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4.26University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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4.89California Poly Maritime Academy2.050.1%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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8.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.750.0%1st Place
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19.2Arizona State University-2.650.0%1st Place
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5.76University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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3.45University of California at Santa Barbara2.680.2%1st Place
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14.48University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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13.42University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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13.15University of California at San Diego-0.600.0%1st Place
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14.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.020.0%1st Place
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9.88University of California at Davis0.370.0%1st Place
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13.26University of California at San Diego-0.580.0%1st Place
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15.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.360.0%1st Place
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16.26University of California at Los Angeles-1.460.0%1st Place
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19.86University of California at San Diego-2.870.0%1st Place
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11.09University of California at Berkeley-0.100.0%1st Place
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13.17University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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15.94University of California at San Diego-1.440.0%1st Place
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19.2Arizona State University-2.650.0%1st Place
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17.09University of California at Davis-1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 8.3% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Long | 26.8% | 20.7% | 17.6% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 12.5% | 15.1% | 13.0% | 16.3% | 14.7% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Collins | 9.9% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Haranzo | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Everson | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 24.1% | 31.8% | 0.0% |
| Sampson Reynolds | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sidney Gathrid | 19.4% | 20.5% | 18.2% | 14.5% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Martin | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Canyon Breyer | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Marie-Laure Golier | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dashel Peters | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Dave OG | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tobie Bloom | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kaden Caliendo | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Jay Tapadiya | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 19.0% | 44.3% | 0.0% |
| William Arnold | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hughes | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Everson | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 24.1% | 31.8% | 0.0% |
| Grace Chitouras | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.