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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont3.51+4.13vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.02+4.59vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.23+2.99vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.52+1.14vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.07+1.63vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.91-1.88vs Predicted
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7Maine Maritime Academy2.20+2.13vs Predicted
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8University of Miami3.25-2.00vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-1.02vs Predicted
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10University of Connecticut2.59-1.88vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99-1.11vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.84-4.56vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College1.50-1.77vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.19-2.24vs Predicted
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15Bates College-1.93-0.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.13University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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6.59Connecticut College3.020.1%1st Place
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5.99Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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5.14Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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6.63Roger Williams University3.070.1%1st Place
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4.12Boston College3.910.2%1st Place
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9.13Maine Maritime Academy2.200.0%1st Place
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6.0University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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7.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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8.12University of Connecticut2.590.0%1st Place
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9.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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7.44Northeastern University2.840.0%1st Place
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11.23Middlebury College1.500.0%1st Place
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11.76Yale University1.190.0%1st Place
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14.83Bates College-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Factor | 12.6% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Wells Bacon | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Rice | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 13.9% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Saunders | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 16.8% | 17.7% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Joseph | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 0.4% |
| William Howard | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| William Cotta | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| John Giuliano | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 17.8% | 12.5% | 0.8% |
| Conor Lodge | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 21.2% | 29.0% | 0.9% |
| William Feldman | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 12.0% | 18.0% | 36.7% | 3.0% |
| Reilly Bergin-Pugh | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 94.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.