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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.02+5.59vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.23+3.89vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont3.51+2.12vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.07+2.50vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.52+0.31vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99+3.88vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.91-2.84vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy2.20+1.23vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.84-1.81vs Predicted
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10University of Miami3.25-3.92vs Predicted
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11University of Connecticut2.59-2.96vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-3.77vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College1.50-1.83vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.19-2.24vs Predicted
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15Bates College-1.93-0.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59Connecticut College3.020.1%1st Place
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5.89Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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5.12University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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6.5Roger Williams University3.070.1%1st Place
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5.31Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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9.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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4.16Boston College3.910.2%1st Place
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9.23Maine Maritime Academy2.200.0%1st Place
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7.19Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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6.08University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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8.04University of Connecticut2.590.0%1st Place
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8.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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11.17Middlebury College1.500.0%1st Place
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11.76Yale University1.190.0%1st Place
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14.84Bates College-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Bacon | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Rice | 8.7% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Factor | 12.0% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| George Saunders | 8.6% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 12.6% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 15.2% | 12.3% | 0.7% |
| William Bowman | 19.4% | 14.9% | 14.4% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Joseph | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 8.2% | 0.5% |
| Conor Lodge | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| William Howard | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Giuliano | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| William Cotta | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 13.7% | 20.4% | 28.6% | 0.9% |
| William Feldman | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 19.2% | 37.6% | 2.7% |
| Reilly Bergin-Pugh | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 94.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.