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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.02+8.18vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+6.08vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.57+4.32vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+1.09vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University2.46+2.57vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy2.07+3.19vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.81-3.29vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.77-1.60vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-3.93vs Predicted
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10University of Washington0.79+3.70vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.94-1.38vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University1.13+0.74vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-1.33vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.52+0.57vs Predicted
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15University of Southern California1.96-5.62vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego1.45-4.70vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz1.15-4.64vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-0.29-1.34vs Predicted
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19University of North Texas-0.43-2.07vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-2.34-0.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.18College of Charleston2.020.0%1st Place
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8.08University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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7.32Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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5.09St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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7.57Jacksonville University2.460.1%1st Place
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9.19California Poly Maritime Academy2.070.0%1st Place
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3.71Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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6.4Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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13.7University of Washington0.790.0%1st Place
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9.62Tufts University1.940.0%1st Place
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12.74Northwestern University1.130.0%1st Place
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11.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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14.57University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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9.38University of Southern California1.960.0%1st Place
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11.3University of California at San Diego1.450.0%1st Place
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12.36University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.0%1st Place
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16.66San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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16.93University of North Texas-0.430.0%1st Place
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19.47Arizona State University-2.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Mayol | 4.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Mowry | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 13.5% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brock Paquin | 2.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 21.2% | 18.5% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 13.9% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Hauter | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 1.0% |
| Wells Drayton | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Quinn | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Liam Hood | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Abraham Dearden | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 16.9% | 10.5% | 1.6% |
| Grace Yakutis | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Aitor Iriso | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Erik Hallback | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 12.1% | 21.9% | 31.0% | 6.3% |
| Meri Keskimaula | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 20.2% | 35.5% | 8.6% |
| Mary Spearman | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 9.6% | 81.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.