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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont3.51+4.14vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.23+3.95vs Predicted
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3University of Miami3.25+2.89vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.91+0.14vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.07+1.61vs Predicted
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6University of Connecticut2.59+2.07vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+0.95vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.52-2.78vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.84-1.78vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College3.02-3.22vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy2.20-1.78vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99-1.97vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.19-1.11vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College1.50-2.95vs Predicted
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15Bates College-1.93-0.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.14University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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5.95Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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5.89University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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4.14Boston College3.910.2%1st Place
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6.61Roger Williams University3.070.1%1st Place
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8.07University of Connecticut2.590.0%1st Place
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7.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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5.22Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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7.22Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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6.78Connecticut College3.020.1%1st Place
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9.22Maine Maritime Academy2.200.0%1st Place
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10.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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11.89Yale University1.190.0%1st Place
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11.05Middlebury College1.500.0%1st Place
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14.83Bates College-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Factor | 12.8% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Rice | 8.4% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| William Howard | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 18.6% | 17.5% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Saunders | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| John Giuliano | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| William Cotta | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 0.2% |
| Willem Sandberg | 12.7% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conor Lodge | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Wells Bacon | 7.7% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| John Joseph | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 8.2% | 0.8% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 15.9% | 16.7% | 12.9% | 0.4% |
| William Feldman | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 19.1% | 41.3% | 2.3% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 20.4% | 23.9% | 1.8% |
| Reilly Bergin-Pugh | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 3.1% | 93.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.