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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.13vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+3.13vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.02+6.41vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.77+2.59vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.81-1.53vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.96+3.55vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University2.46+0.84vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy2.07+0.85vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.94+0.45vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-1.93vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+0.42vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University1.13+0.77vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.57-5.52vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz1.15-1.58vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles0.52-0.60vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-0.29+0.57vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego1.45-5.73vs Predicted
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18University of Washington0.79-4.23vs Predicted
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19University of North Texas-0.43-2.10vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-2.39-0.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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5.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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9.41College of Charleston2.020.0%1st Place
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6.59Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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3.47Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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9.55University of Southern California1.960.0%1st Place
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7.84Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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8.85California Poly Maritime Academy2.070.0%1st Place
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9.45Tufts University1.940.0%1st Place
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8.07University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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11.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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12.77Northwestern University1.130.0%1st Place
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7.48Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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12.42University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.0%1st Place
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14.4University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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16.57San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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11.27University of California at San Diego1.450.0%1st Place
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13.77University of Washington0.790.0%1st Place
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16.9University of North Texas-0.430.0%1st Place
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19.5Arizona State University-2.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 12.9% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 13.7% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Mayol | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 24.3% | 19.2% | 15.9% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Yakutis | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brock Paquin | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Wells Drayton | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Quinn | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aitor Iriso | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Abraham Dearden | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 15.5% | 9.9% | 1.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 12.3% | 20.9% | 29.8% | 7.8% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Austin Hauter | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 0.3% |
| Meri Keskimaula | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 21.4% | 34.4% | 7.9% |
| Nicholas Peters | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 8.6% | 82.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.