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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.31+6.38vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.83+3.55vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.50+3.89vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.00+4.58vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.93+0.19vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.33+1.45vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego1.57+3.62vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.93+0.70vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.16vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94-4.79vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.82-1.62vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.34+2.73vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University0.56+1.15vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.07-5.74vs Predicted
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15California Poly Maritime Academy1.49-4.47vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74-6.49vs Predicted
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17University of North Texas-0.97+0.59vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.56-4.10vs Predicted
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19University of Washington-0.10-3.27vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-2.53-0.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.38College of Charleston2.310.1%1st Place
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5.55Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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6.89Cornell University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.58University of Southern California2.000.1%1st Place
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5.19Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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7.45Jacksonville University2.330.1%1st Place
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10.62University of California at San Diego1.570.0%1st Place
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8.7Northwestern University1.930.1%1st Place
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11.16University of California at Los Angeles1.300.0%1st Place
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5.21St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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9.38University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.0%1st Place
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14.73University of California at Santa Cruz0.340.0%1st Place
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14.15San Diego State University0.560.0%1st Place
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8.26Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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10.53California Poly Maritime Academy1.490.0%1st Place
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9.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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17.59University of North Texas-0.970.0%1st Place
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13.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.560.0%1st Place
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15.73University of Washington-0.100.0%1st Place
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19.48Arizona State University-2.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Eaton | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 12.8% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Paulsen | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Person | 13.3% | 13.1% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andre Guaragna | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nigel Lipps | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Lewis Cooper | 12.4% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Keelin Davis | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 15.2% | 20.4% | 9.3% | 1.2% |
| James Schrady | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 16.9% | 13.5% | 7.3% | 1.1% |
| Micky Munns | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emi Stephanoff | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emma Cooledge | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 8.9% | 14.4% | 45.0% | 13.2% |
| Tara Rogers | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 7.0% | 0.4% |
| John Kauffman | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 9.3% | 15.5% | 23.6% | 18.9% | 2.7% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 9.5% | 81.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.