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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+4.20vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.49+8.57vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.83+2.66vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.07+4.30vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+4.19vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.93-0.70vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.31+0.67vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University2.33-0.85vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.93-0.26vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego1.57+0.29vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California2.00-2.37vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74-2.23vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.50-6.02vs Predicted
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14University of Washington-0.10+1.83vs Predicted
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15University of North Texas-0.97+2.52vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.56-2.12vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University0.56-3.15vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Cruz0.34-3.32vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles1.30-7.69vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-2.53-0.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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10.57California Poly Maritime Academy1.490.0%1st Place
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5.66Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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8.3Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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9.19University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.0%1st Place
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5.3Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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7.67College of Charleston2.310.1%1st Place
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7.15Jacksonville University2.330.1%1st Place
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8.74Northwestern University1.930.0%1st Place
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10.29University of California at San Diego1.570.0%1st Place
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8.63University of Southern California2.000.1%1st Place
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9.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.0%1st Place
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6.98Cornell University2.500.1%1st Place
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15.83University of Washington-0.100.0%1st Place
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17.52University of North Texas-0.970.0%1st Place
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13.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.560.0%1st Place
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13.85San Diego State University0.560.0%1st Place
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14.68University of California at Santa Cruz0.340.0%1st Place
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11.31University of California at Los Angeles1.300.0%1st Place
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19.48Arizona State University-2.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Cooper | 14.6% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emi Stephanoff | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 12.5% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Micky Munns | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Person | 12.9% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Eaton | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andre Guaragna | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nigel Lipps | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Paulsen | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kauffman | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 23.5% | 18.4% | 3.3% |
| Emma Cooledge | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 44.2% | 14.1% |
| Tara Rogers | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 17.3% | 12.6% | 6.7% | 0.7% |
| James Schrady | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 6.5% | 0.9% |
| Keelin Davis | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 15.3% | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 11.1% | 79.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.