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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College3.91+3.15vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99+7.65vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.84+4.19vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.07+2.52vs Predicted
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5Maine Maritime Academy2.20+4.22vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+1.98vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.02-0.35vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.51-2.80vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.52-3.88vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College1.50+1.15vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.23-4.91vs Predicted
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12University of Miami3.25-5.81vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut2.59-4.74vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.19-2.21vs Predicted
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15Bates College-1.93-0.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.15Boston College3.910.2%1st Place
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9.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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7.19Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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6.52Roger Williams University3.070.1%1st Place
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9.22Maine Maritime Academy2.200.0%1st Place
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7.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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6.65Connecticut College3.020.1%1st Place
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5.2University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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5.12Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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11.15Middlebury College1.500.0%1st Place
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6.09Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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6.19University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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8.26University of Connecticut2.590.0%1st Place
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11.79Yale University1.190.0%1st Place
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14.82Bates College-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Bowman | 19.1% | 16.4% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 3.1% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 0.4% |
| Conor Lodge | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| George Saunders | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| John Joseph | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 7.5% | 0.3% |
| William Cotta | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| Wells Bacon | 8.6% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Factor | 12.5% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 11.0% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 21.2% | 27.1% | 1.5% |
| Tyler Rice | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| William Howard | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Giuliano | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 0.1% |
| William Feldman | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 18.0% | 39.2% | 2.8% |
| Reilly Bergin-Pugh | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 94.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.