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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.10+5.56vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.22+6.09vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.25+1.66vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85+5.31vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College1.71+1.20vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College1.13+2.49vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-0.85vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.48+2.80vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.69-2.28vs Predicted
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10Maine Maritime Academy0.20+1.75vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.99-4.99vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island0.99-3.15vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.15-4.60vs Predicted
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14Tufts University0.93-4.67vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College-0.29-1.79vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College-0.37-2.40vs Predicted
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17McGill University-1.05-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.56Dartmouth College2.108.8%1st Place
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8.09Northeastern University1.224.9%1st Place
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4.66Yale University2.2515.6%1st Place
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9.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.854.2%1st Place
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6.2Dartmouth College1.7111.1%1st Place
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8.49Bowdoin College1.135.1%1st Place
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6.15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.779.8%1st Place
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10.8University of Vermont0.482.8%1st Place
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6.72Brown University1.699.0%1st Place
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11.75Maine Maritime Academy0.201.7%1st Place
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6.01Brown University1.9910.6%1st Place
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8.85University of Rhode Island0.994.8%1st Place
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8.4Tufts University1.154.8%1st Place
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9.33Tufts University0.934.3%1st Place
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13.21Connecticut College-0.290.9%1st Place
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13.6Middlebury College-0.371.0%1st Place
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14.87McGill University-1.050.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Young | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eva Ermlich | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Dorothy Mendelblatt | 15.6% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julia Conneely | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 1.1% |
| bella casaretto | 11.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Rebecca Schill | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 3.6% |
| Katherine McNamara | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Ella Beauregard | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 7.0% |
| Katharine Doble | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Ella Hubbard | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Haley Andreasen | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Natalie Fear | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 21.8% | 15.7% |
| Penelope Weekes | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 21.5% | 21.4% |
| Cecilia Muller | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 15.7% | 47.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.