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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.23+4.97vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University2.84+5.10vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.07+3.47vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.52+1.17vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.91-0.77vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.02+0.66vs Predicted
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7University of Connecticut2.59+0.95vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.51-2.78vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99+0.78vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-1.88vs Predicted
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11University of Miami3.25-4.96vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.19-0.04vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy2.20-3.57vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College1.50-2.92vs Predicted
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15Bates College-1.93-0.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.97Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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7.1Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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6.47Roger Williams University3.070.1%1st Place
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5.17Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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4.23Boston College3.910.2%1st Place
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6.66Connecticut College3.020.1%1st Place
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7.95University of Connecticut2.590.1%1st Place
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5.22University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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9.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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8.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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6.04University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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11.96Yale University1.190.0%1st Place
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9.43Maine Maritime Academy2.200.0%1st Place
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11.08Middlebury College1.500.0%1st Place
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14.83Bates College-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Rice | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Conor Lodge | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| George Saunders | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 13.2% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 17.9% | 14.9% | 14.6% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wells Bacon | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| John Giuliano | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Factor | 12.1% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 15.9% | 9.9% | 0.7% |
| William Cotta | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| William Howard | 9.1% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| William Feldman | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 19.2% | 40.3% | 2.4% |
| John Joseph | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 0.2% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 20.0% | 25.6% | 2.1% |
| Reilly Bergin-Pugh | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 94.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.