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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+8.24vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+4.26vs Predicted
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3Brown University4.49+3.85vs Predicted
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4Boston University4.07+4.42vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.89+0.49vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.87+7.19vs Predicted
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7Washington College3.65+3.31vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin4.10+0.59vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63+1.11vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.23+1.92vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.84+2.52vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.62-1.26vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida4.17-5.24vs Predicted
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14Tufts University4.08-5.49vs Predicted
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15Harvard University4.17-7.10vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79-6.49vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College3.44-5.93vs Predicted
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18Tulane University1.64-0.96vs Predicted
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19Fordham University2.73-5.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.0%1st Place
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6.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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6.85Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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8.42Boston University4.070.1%1st Place
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5.49Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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13.19University of California at Santa Barbara2.870.0%1st Place
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10.31Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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8.59University of Wisconsin4.100.1%1st Place
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10.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.0%1st Place
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11.92Yale University3.230.0%1st Place
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13.52George Washington University2.840.0%1st Place
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10.74University of Rhode Island3.620.0%1st Place
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7.76University of South Florida4.170.1%1st Place
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8.51Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.9Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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9.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.0%1st Place
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11.07Connecticut College3.440.0%1st Place
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17.04Tulane University1.640.0%1st Place
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13.57Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Samuel Ingham | 11.1% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Fred Strammer | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Greenfield | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Sinks | 11.7% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Kaschak | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 16.2% | 11.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Joseph Kutschenreuter | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Eamon Glackin | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Rob Struckett | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 3.7% |
| William Ricketson | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 9.4% |
| Matthew Carmody | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Zachary Marks | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| William Haeger | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| John Stokes | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Sam Padnos | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Peter Miller | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 2.8% |
| Schuyler Hemmerdinger | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 14.3% | 55.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 16.7% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.