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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+2.08vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.09+3.24vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.34+1.66vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University-0.44+2.97vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley-1.11+4.02vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.61+1.55vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.29-2.38vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-1.37+1.62vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-1.72+1.74vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands-1.81+0.99vs Predicted
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11Santa Clara University-1.25-1.52vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.01-3.30vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.60-5.65vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay-1.72-3.26vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51-8.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.3%1st Place
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5.24University of California at Los Angeles0.090.1%1st Place
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4.66University of California at Santa Cruz0.340.1%1st Place
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6.97San Diego State University-0.440.1%1st Place
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9.02University of California at Berkeley-1.110.0%1st Place
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7.55University of California at Berkeley-0.610.1%1st Place
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4.62University of California at Los Angeles0.290.1%1st Place
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9.62University of California at Irvine-1.370.0%1st Place
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10.74California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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10.99California State University Channel Islands-1.810.0%1st Place
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9.48Santa Clara University-1.250.0%1st Place
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8.7University of California at Davis-1.010.0%1st Place
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7.35University of California at San Diego-0.600.1%1st Place
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10.74California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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6.97University of California at Santa Barbara-0.510.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Ponting | 28.9% | 21.5% | 15.6% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 10.5% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Keelin Davis | 12.1% | 15.0% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bittner | 5.1% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Deshler | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 14.2% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Neil Gompf | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 19.2% | 22.3% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Feito | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 16.0% | 29.1% | 0.0% |
| Bennett Dorsey | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| Konrad Brine | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| Marie-Laure Golier | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 19.2% | 22.3% | 0.0% |
| Ariana Fernandez | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.