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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego1.57+2.05vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego1.45+1.15vs Predicted
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3University of California at Davis0.41+2.59vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.24+3.45vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-0.10+2.09vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University-0.29+1.68vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-1.37+3.29vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57+2.91vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.73-4.11vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands-0.97-0.46vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.73-2.07vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.52-6.66vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.74-1.73vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-1.14-4.19vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-0.97-5.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.05University of California at San Diego1.570.3%1st Place
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3.15University of California at San Diego1.450.2%1st Place
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5.59University of California at Davis0.410.1%1st Place
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7.45University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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7.09University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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7.68San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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10.29University of California at Irvine-1.370.0%1st Place
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10.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.0%1st Place
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4.89University of California at Berkeley0.730.1%1st Place
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9.54California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
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8.93University of California at San Diego-0.730.0%1st Place
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5.34University of California at Los Angeles0.520.1%1st Place
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11.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.740.0%1st Place
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9.81University of California at Santa Cruz-1.140.0%1st Place
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9.54California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Lipps | 27.5% | 21.9% | 16.5% | 12.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 24.4% | 20.7% | 18.5% | 15.4% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Samuels | 7.9% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 3.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Neil Gompf | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 16.4% | 16.5% | 0.0% |
| Chris Haugen | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 16.5% | 26.6% | 0.0% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 10.2% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 15.1% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| Fisher Price | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 8.6% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 18.8% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gravallese | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 15.1% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 15.1% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.