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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego1.45+2.27vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego1.57+0.96vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57+7.84vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.24+3.49vs Predicted
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5University of California at Davis0.41+0.73vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University-0.29+1.70vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.73-2.32vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.73+0.72vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.52-3.62vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.10-2.88vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-0.97-1.46vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-1.37-1.50vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-1.14-3.21vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.74-2.73vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-0.97-5.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.27University of California at San Diego1.450.2%1st Place
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2.96University of California at San Diego1.570.3%1st Place
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10.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.0%1st Place
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7.49University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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5.73University of California at Davis0.410.1%1st Place
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7.7San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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4.68University of California at Berkeley0.730.1%1st Place
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8.72University of California at San Diego-0.730.0%1st Place
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5.38University of California at Los Angeles0.520.1%1st Place
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7.12University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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9.54California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
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10.5University of California at Irvine-1.370.0%1st Place
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9.79University of California at Santa Cruz-1.140.0%1st Place
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11.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.740.0%1st Place
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9.54California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Dorn | 23.2% | 22.5% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nigel Lipps | 28.2% | 19.4% | 20.2% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Haugen | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 18.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 3.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Samuels | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 12.3% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fisher Price | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 7.9% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Neil Gompf | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 14.3% | 15.4% | 16.9% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gravallese | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 20.4% | 28.3% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.