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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego1.45+2.28vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego1.57+0.96vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine-1.37+7.40vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis0.41+1.67vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley-0.24+2.48vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.52-0.54vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-0.29+0.30vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.10-0.99vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.73-4.13vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.73-1.09vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-0.97-1.46vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57-0.96vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.74-1.72vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-1.14-4.20vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-0.97-5.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.28University of California at San Diego1.450.2%1st Place
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2.96University of California at San Diego1.570.3%1st Place
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10.4University of California at Irvine-1.370.0%1st Place
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5.67University of California at Davis0.410.1%1st Place
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7.48University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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5.46University of California at Los Angeles0.520.1%1st Place
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7.3San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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7.01University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.1%1st Place
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4.87University of California at Berkeley0.730.1%1st Place
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8.91University of California at San Diego-0.730.0%1st Place
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9.54California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
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11.04Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.0%1st Place
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11.28Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.740.0%1st Place
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9.8University of California at Santa Cruz-1.140.0%1st Place
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9.54California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Dorn | 23.4% | 21.4% | 16.3% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nigel Lipps | 27.6% | 22.6% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Gompf | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 18.0% | 17.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Samuels | 6.8% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 4.0% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 10.4% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fisher Price | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Chris Haugen | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 16.7% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 18.0% | 30.4% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gravallese | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.