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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego1.57+2.03vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego1.45+1.16vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.52+2.35vs Predicted
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4California State University Channel Islands-0.97+5.52vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.74+6.38vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.73+2.91vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-1.37+3.24vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.57+2.90vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands-0.97+0.52vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.73-5.12vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.10-3.90vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis0.41-6.27vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.29-5.38vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-1.14-4.16vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-0.24-7.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.03University of California at San Diego1.570.3%1st Place
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3.16University of California at San Diego1.450.2%1st Place
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5.35University of California at Los Angeles0.520.1%1st Place
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9.52California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
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11.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.740.0%1st Place
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8.91University of California at San Diego-0.730.0%1st Place
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10.24University of California at Irvine-1.370.0%1st Place
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10.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.570.0%1st Place
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9.52California State University Channel Islands-0.970.0%1st Place
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4.88University of California at Berkeley0.730.1%1st Place
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7.1University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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5.73University of California at Davis0.410.1%1st Place
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7.62San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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9.84University of California at Santa Cruz-1.140.0%1st Place
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7.34University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Lipps | 28.2% | 21.5% | 16.6% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 23.0% | 23.2% | 19.0% | 13.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 16.1% | 31.5% | 0.0% |
| Fisher Price | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Neil Gompf | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 17.6% | 15.1% | 0.0% |
| Chris Haugen | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 17.4% | 25.2% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gates | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 10.6% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Samuels | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gravallese | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.