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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego0.50+2.57vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-0.15+3.02vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.09+1.44vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-1.11+3.68vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-0.75+1.51vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-1.02+1.34vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26+1.00vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.29-4.13vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.93-1.78vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-1.03-2.63vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-1.81-1.63vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-2.18-1.49vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.81-3.63vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.98-3.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.57University of California at San Diego0.500.2%1st Place
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5.02University of California at San Diego-0.150.1%1st Place
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4.44University of California at Los Angeles0.090.1%1st Place
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7.68University of California at Berkeley-1.110.0%1st Place
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6.51University of California at San Diego-0.750.1%1st Place
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7.34University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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8.0Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
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3.87University of California at Los Angeles0.290.2%1st Place
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7.22University of California at Davis-0.930.1%1st Place
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7.37University of California at Berkeley-1.030.1%1st Place
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9.37California State University Channel Islands-1.810.0%1st Place
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10.51University of California at Santa Cruz-2.180.0%1st Place
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9.37California State University Channel Islands-1.810.0%1st Place
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10.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Barton | 21.3% | 19.9% | 14.1% | 14.5% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Rowland | 11.0% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 13.3% | 15.6% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Canyon Breyer | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Paulo Garcia Lopez | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Macy Rowe | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 18.2% | 16.5% | 15.7% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonah Brees | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| James Guiraud | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Feito | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 14.4% | 15.8% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| Julio Hurtado | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 20.0% | 33.9% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Feito | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 14.4% | 15.8% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Tegeler | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 18.9% | 26.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.