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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego0.50+2.52vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley-1.11+5.68vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.29+0.98vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.15+1.05vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley-1.03+2.30vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-1.02+1.33vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.75-0.43vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.09-3.63vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26-0.84vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.98-0.13vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.93-4.05vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands-1.81-2.36vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-1.81-3.36vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-2.18-3.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.52University of California at San Diego0.500.2%1st Place
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7.68University of California at Berkeley-1.110.0%1st Place
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3.98University of California at Los Angeles0.290.2%1st Place
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5.05University of California at San Diego-0.150.1%1st Place
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7.3University of California at Berkeley-1.030.1%1st Place
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7.33University of California at Irvine-1.020.1%1st Place
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6.57University of California at San Diego-0.750.1%1st Place
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4.37University of California at Los Angeles0.090.2%1st Place
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8.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
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9.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.980.0%1st Place
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6.95University of California at Davis-0.930.0%1st Place
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9.64California State University Channel Islands-1.810.0%1st Place
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9.64California State University Channel Islands-1.810.0%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Santa Cruz-2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Barton | 21.6% | 18.3% | 16.7% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 17.2% | 17.2% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Rowland | 11.4% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| James Guiraud | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Paulo Garcia Lopez | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Canyon Breyer | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 15.1% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Macy Rowe | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Tegeler | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 18.5% | 24.1% | 0.0% |
| Jonah Brees | 4.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Feito | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 14.6% | 18.6% | 19.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Feito | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 14.6% | 18.6% | 19.0% | 0.0% |
| Julio Hurtado | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 17.8% | 34.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.