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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22+9.19vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida3.48+7.11vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.98+4.09vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin3.36+5.57vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.86+7.06vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.87+5.51vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.63+1.46vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College3.78+0.02vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.29+4.72vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-2.80vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+0.95vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.70-3.57vs Predicted
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13Harvard University4.36-7.66vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.88-6.49vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.23-1.00vs Predicted
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16Yale University3.74-8.15vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.50-3.89vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-8.05vs Predicted
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19Tulane University1.90-4.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.0%1st Place
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9.11University of South Florida3.480.1%1st Place
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7.09Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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9.57University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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12.06University of Vermont2.860.0%1st Place
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11.51University of Rhode Island2.870.0%1st Place
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8.46Boston University3.630.1%1st Place
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8.02Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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13.72Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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7.2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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11.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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8.43Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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5.34Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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7.51Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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14.0George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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7.85Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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13.11Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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9.95University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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14.93Tulane University1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Zacher | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% |
| SEAN Ross | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Colin Smith | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Alexandra Arntsen | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% |
| Ryan Hughes | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% |
| Daniel Perkins | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Kevin Martland | 7.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 15.2% | 16.6% |
| Andrew Sommer | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Milliken | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% |
| Massimo Soriano | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Kopp | 13.4% | 14.3% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Cook | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Meredith Carroll | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 15.2% | 19.4% |
| Marlena Fauer | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 11.7% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Mackenzie Milne | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 15.7% | 26.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.