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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University2.01+4.71vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin2.24+3.11vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.53+4.33vs Predicted
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4Tulane University1.65+3.10vs Predicted
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5Florida State University2.38-0.17vs Predicted
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6Clemson University1.36+1.99vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston1.40+0.85vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.97-2.13vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.39-1.24vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston2.31-4.96vs Predicted
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11Tulane University0.32-0.05vs Predicted
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12Ohio University-0.79+1.65vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley1.36-5.19vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.23-2.79vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland-0.75-1.37vs Predicted
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16Virginia Tech-1.02-1.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.71North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
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5.11University of Wisconsin2.240.1%1st Place
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7.33Jacksonville University1.530.1%1st Place
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7.1Tulane University1.650.1%1st Place
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4.83Florida State University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.99Clemson University1.360.0%1st Place
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7.85College of Charleston1.400.1%1st Place
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5.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.970.1%1st Place
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7.76Old Dominion University1.390.1%1st Place
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5.04College of Charleston2.310.1%1st Place
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10.95Tulane University0.320.0%1st Place
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13.65Ohio University-0.790.0%1st Place
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7.81University of California at Berkeley1.360.0%1st Place
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11.21Washington College0.230.0%1st Place
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13.63University of Maryland-0.750.0%1st Place
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14.14Virginia Tech-1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Bartel | 13.5% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Perez | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Caelan Watts | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 12.8% | 14.9% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Gruskos | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Kiera Oreardon | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Michael Pinto | 10.6% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Robertson | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Eaton | 12.7% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Byrnes | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 16.5% | 9.8% | 3.1% |
| Siri Schantz | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 16.0% | 23.9% | 28.3% |
| Ciara Dorsay | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Vernon | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 17.3% | 16.4% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
| Ryan Dorsey | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 10.1% | 16.9% | 26.5% | 26.4% |
| James Corckran | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 8.2% | 14.6% | 24.8% | 36.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.