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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.71+6.27vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.93+8.56vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+4.58vs Predicted
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4Brown University4.30+1.08vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.10+5.11vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.03+3.95vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+2.89vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.93+2.77vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin3.31-0.22vs Predicted
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10University of Miami3.25-0.89vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-2.52vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.56-3.82vs Predicted
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13Washington College3.07-3.29vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.91-7.38vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida3.49-6.88vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.01-2.00vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.74-2.16vs Predicted
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18Yale University1.64-2.65vs Predicted
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19Tulane University1.42-3.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.27Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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10.56University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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7.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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5.08Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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10.11Harvard University3.100.0%1st Place
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9.95Boston University3.030.1%1st Place
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9.89University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.0%1st Place
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10.77University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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8.78University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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9.11University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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8.48Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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8.18Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.71Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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6.62Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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8.12University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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14.0Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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14.84George Washington University1.740.0%1st Place
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15.35Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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15.6Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Brugman | 6.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Louis Padnos | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Tommy Fink | 13.8% | 14.1% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Michas | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Ian Towill | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Willie McBride | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| James Simmons | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| Leif Evensen | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| William Howard | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| David Alfonso | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| William Bowman | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Stocke | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Edward Titcomb | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 16.3% | 12.1% |
| Kathleen Hilton | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 17.0% | 22.0% |
| Nathan Stevens | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 18.1% | 25.5% |
| Philip Krause | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 18.3% | 30.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.