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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.93+9.50vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+6.44vs Predicted
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3Brown University4.30+2.18vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+5.82vs Predicted
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5Boston University3.03+5.28vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.56+1.80vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.71+0.25vs Predicted
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8University of Miami3.25+1.38vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.10+0.56vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.93+0.39vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.91-4.55vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida3.49-3.59vs Predicted
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13Washington College3.07-3.43vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.64+1.33vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-7.59vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin3.31-7.27vs Predicted
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17Tulane University1.42-1.28vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.01-4.08vs Predicted
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19George Washington University1.30-3.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.5University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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8.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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5.18Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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9.82University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.0%1st Place
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10.28Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
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7.8Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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7.25Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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9.38University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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9.56Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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10.39University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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6.45Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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8.41University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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9.57Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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15.33Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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7.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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8.73University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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15.72Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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13.92Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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15.85George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Simmons | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| David Alfonso | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Tommy Fink | 15.2% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Willie McBride | 3.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Ian Towill | 3.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 8.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Howard | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Jason Michas | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| William Bowman | 9.1% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Will Stocke | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 20.7% | 21.5% |
| Louis Padnos | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Leif Evensen | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Philip Krause | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 20.7% | 29.1% |
| Edward Titcomb | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 10.8% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 11.6% | 20.5% | 31.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.