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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida3.49+7.14vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.71+5.33vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+6.90vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.91+2.47vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.10+5.01vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+2.34vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.03+3.01vs Predicted
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8University of Miami3.25+1.34vs Predicted
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9Washington College3.07+0.63vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.56-2.28vs Predicted
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11Brown University4.30-5.87vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-4.26vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin3.31-4.38vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.64+1.34vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.93-4.66vs Predicted
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16Tulane University1.42-0.23vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island2.93-6.59vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.01-4.07vs Predicted
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19George Washington University1.30-3.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.14University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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7.33Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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9.9University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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6.47Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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10.01Harvard University3.100.0%1st Place
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8.34Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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10.01Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
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9.34University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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9.63Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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7.72Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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5.13Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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7.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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8.62University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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15.34Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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10.34University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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15.77Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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10.41University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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13.93Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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15.82George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stocke | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Willie McBride | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| William Bowman | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Michas | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| David Alfonso | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Ian Towill | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| William Howard | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Tommy Fink | 13.4% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Leif Evensen | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 15.2% | 20.1% | 22.0% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Philip Krause | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 18.9% | 29.8% |
| James Simmons | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| Edward Titcomb | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 11.1% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 12.8% | 21.4% | 30.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.