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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College3.91+5.47vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.71+5.22vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.56+4.92vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+4.43vs Predicted
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5Washington College3.07+5.06vs Predicted
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6Brown University4.30-0.89vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.03+3.05vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.10+1.99vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.72vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.93+0.29vs Predicted
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11University of Miami3.25-1.93vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin3.31-2.81vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.64+1.97vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-4.12vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida3.49-6.97vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.01-2.08vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont2.93-6.58vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.30-1.82vs Predicted
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19Tulane University1.42-3.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.47Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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7.22Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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7.92Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.43Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.0%1st Place
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10.06Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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5.11Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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10.05Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
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9.99Harvard University3.100.0%1st Place
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7.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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10.29University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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9.07University of Miami3.250.0%1st Place
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9.19University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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14.97Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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9.88University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.0%1st Place
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8.03University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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13.92Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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10.42University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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16.18George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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15.5Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Bowman | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| David Alfonso | 4.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Tommy Fink | 16.5% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Towill | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Jason Michas | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Louis Padnos | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| James Simmons | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| William Howard | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Leif Evensen | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 19.8% | 20.3% |
| Willie McBride | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Will Stocke | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Edward Titcomb | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 16.2% | 10.6% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 18.4% | 34.7% |
| Philip Krause | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 21.2% | 27.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.