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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University4.30+4.11vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.91+4.53vs Predicted
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3Washington College3.07+6.99vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin3.31+4.90vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.93+5.73vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.71+1.23vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.03+3.03vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.10+2.02vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida3.49-1.05vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.56-2.34vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-2.61vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-4.24vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont2.93-2.77vs Predicted
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14University of Miami3.25-4.76vs Predicted
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15Tulane University1.42+0.61vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-6.35vs Predicted
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17Yale University1.64-1.88vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.01-4.00vs Predicted
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19George Washington University1.30-3.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.11Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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6.53Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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9.99Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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8.9University of Wisconsin3.310.0%1st Place
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10.73University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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7.23Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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10.03Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
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10.02Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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7.95University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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7.66Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.39Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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7.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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10.23University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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9.24University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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15.61Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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9.65University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.0%1st Place
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15.12Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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14.0Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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15.84George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fink | 13.1% | 16.1% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Leif Evensen | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| James Simmons | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ian Towill | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Jason Michas | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Will Stocke | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| David Alfonso | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| William Howard | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Philip Krause | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 20.1% | 29.2% |
| Willie McBride | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 19.3% | 22.4% |
| Edward Titcomb | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 11.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 13.0% | 21.2% | 30.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.