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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+7.40vs Predicted
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2Brown University4.30+3.17vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.03+7.10vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.71+3.24vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.91+1.71vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.46vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.56+0.88vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.93+2.65vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida3.49-1.00vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-0.31vs Predicted
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11Washington College3.07-1.21vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.01+2.31vs Predicted
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13Harvard University3.10-3.45vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin3.31-5.00vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.93-4.64vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.30+0.07vs Predicted
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17Yale University1.64-1.98vs Predicted
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18Tulane University1.42-2.16vs Predicted
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19University of Miami3.25-10.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.0%1st Place
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5.17Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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10.1Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
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7.24Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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6.71Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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7.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.88Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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10.65University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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8.0University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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9.69University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.0%1st Place
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9.79Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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14.31Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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9.55Harvard University3.100.0%1st Place
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9.0University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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10.36University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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16.07George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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15.02Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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15.84Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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8.75University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alfonso | 4.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Fink | 15.5% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Towill | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 7.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| James Simmons | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| Will Stocke | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Willie McBride | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.2% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Edward Titcomb | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 15.8% | 17.3% | 10.5% |
| Jason Michas | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Leif Evensen | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 20.1% | 34.4% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 19.2% | 19.8% |
| Philip Krause | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 20.5% | 27.7% |
| William Howard | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.