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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.71+6.20vs Predicted
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2Brown University4.30+3.17vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.91+3.59vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.56+3.84vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+5.03vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.10+3.66vs Predicted
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7Washington College3.07+2.90vs Predicted
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8University of Miami3.25+1.34vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.70vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida3.49-2.02vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.93-0.57vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin3.31-2.73vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.93-2.74vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-5.47vs Predicted
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15Boston University3.03-5.13vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.30+0.09vs Predicted
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17Tulane University1.42-1.28vs Predicted
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18Yale University1.64-2.81vs Predicted
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19Fordham University2.01-5.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.2Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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5.17Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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6.59Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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7.84Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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10.03University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.0%1st Place
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9.66Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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9.9Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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9.34University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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7.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.98University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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10.43University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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9.27University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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10.26University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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8.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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9.87Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
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16.09George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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15.72Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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15.19Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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13.64Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Brugman | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Fink | 14.9% | 14.3% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Willie McBride | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Jason Michas | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| William Howard | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Louis Padnos | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Will Stocke | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Leif Evensen | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| James Simmons | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| David Alfonso | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Ian Towill | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 11.4% | 21.1% | 33.8% |
| Philip Krause | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 8.0% | 13.4% | 18.6% | 30.5% |
| Nathan Stevens | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 21.3% | 19.4% |
| Edward Titcomb | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.