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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+4.69vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+4.16vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+4.52vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.78+4.10vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+3.45vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.48+0.44vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.68-0.25vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.38-0.63vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.02-0.87vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.05+2.38vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45-1.43vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.07+0.34vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.22-5.33vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.86-4.18vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.14-3.82vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering0.22-1.71vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.20-5.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.69Yale University2.8511.8%1st Place
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6.16Brown University2.7310.7%1st Place
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7.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.1%1st Place
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8.1University of Rhode Island2.786.6%1st Place
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8.45Bowdoin College2.386.0%1st Place
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6.44Harvard University2.489.8%1st Place
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6.75Roger Williams University2.688.8%1st Place
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7.37Dartmouth College2.387.4%1st Place
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8.13Boston College2.025.2%1st Place
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12.38University of Vermont1.052.1%1st Place
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9.57Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.454.2%1st Place
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12.34Northeastern University1.072.1%1st Place
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7.67Tufts University2.227.0%1st Place
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9.82Brown University1.863.6%1st Place
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11.18Boston University1.142.7%1st Place
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14.29Olin College of Engineering0.221.0%1st Place
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11.14Connecticut College1.202.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 11.8% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| William Michels | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 16.1% | 16.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 2.3% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 16.4% | 15.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 3.7% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 8.1% |
| James Jagielski | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 15.8% | 42.3% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.