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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University4.30+3.89vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+7.25vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.71+3.79vs Predicted
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4Washington College3.07+5.01vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin3.31+3.12vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+0.88vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.93+2.71vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.49-0.63vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.93+0.65vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-1.98vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.56-3.64vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.10-2.65vs Predicted
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13Tulane University1.42+1.68vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.03-5.01vs Predicted
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15University of Miami3.25-6.61vs Predicted
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16Yale University1.64-1.69vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.01-3.79vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.30-2.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.89Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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9.25University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.0%1st Place
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6.79Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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9.01Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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8.12University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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6.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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9.71University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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7.37University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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9.65University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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8.02Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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7.36Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.35Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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14.68Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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8.99Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
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8.39University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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14.31Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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13.21Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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15.01George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fink | 15.5% | 15.3% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Willie McBride | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 8.7% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Leif Evensen | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Louis Padnos | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Will Stocke | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| James Simmons | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| David Alfonso | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 7.4% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Jason Michas | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Philip Krause | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 19.9% | 28.4% |
| Ian Towill | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| William Howard | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 20.0% | 20.6% |
| Edward Titcomb | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 14.7% | 15.6% | 12.3% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 13.7% | 21.1% | 31.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.