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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.56+6.42vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin3.31+6.43vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida3.49+4.65vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.10+4.90vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.93+4.63vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+1.83vs Predicted
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7Brown University4.30-2.31vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.93+1.57vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-2.19vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College3.71-3.12vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.03-1.60vs Predicted
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12University of Miami3.25-3.21vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.64+1.06vs Predicted
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14Washington College3.07-5.09vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-6.03vs Predicted
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16Tulane University1.42-1.07vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.30-1.80vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.01-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.42Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.43University of Wisconsin3.310.0%1st Place
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7.65University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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8.9Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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9.63University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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7.83Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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4.69Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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9.57University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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6.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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6.88Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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9.4Boston University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.79University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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14.06Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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8.91Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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8.97University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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14.93Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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15.2George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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12.93Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Leif Evensen | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Will Stocke | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jason Michas | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| James Simmons | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| David Alfonso | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Tommy Fink | 16.2% | 17.4% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Louis Padnos | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 10.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian Towill | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| William Howard | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 20.4% | 20.3% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Willie McBride | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Philip Krause | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 13.9% | 21.1% | 29.2% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 12.9% | 20.0% | 34.3% |
| Edward Titcomb | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 8.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.