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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.68+5.62vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+4.35vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+4.46vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.48+2.58vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78+3.22vs Predicted
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6Boston College1.97+3.08vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.38+0.26vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.22-0.42vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.85-3.38vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.39-0.08vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.38-2.51vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.07+0.32vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.05-0.65vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College1.20-2.63vs Predicted
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15Brown University1.86-5.07vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering0.22-1.75vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45-7.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62Roger Williams University2.689.6%1st Place
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6.35Brown University2.7310.5%1st Place
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7.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.6%1st Place
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6.58Harvard University2.488.8%1st Place
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8.22University of Rhode Island2.786.2%1st Place
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9.08Boston College1.975.5%1st Place
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7.26Dartmouth College2.387.1%1st Place
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7.58Tufts University2.226.9%1st Place
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5.62Yale University2.8512.2%1st Place
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9.92Boston University1.394.2%1st Place
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8.49Bowdoin College2.385.3%1st Place
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12.32Northeastern University1.071.8%1st Place
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12.35University of Vermont1.051.5%1st Place
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11.37Connecticut College1.202.9%1st Place
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9.93Brown University1.863.4%1st Place
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14.25Olin College of Engineering0.220.7%1st Place
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9.59Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.454.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Peter Joslin | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
| William Michels | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.2% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 3.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 15.3% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 16.6% | 14.3% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 10.2% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| James Jagielski | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 43.1% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.