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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.93+8.91vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.56+5.37vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin3.31+5.49vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+4.92vs Predicted
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5Boston University3.03+4.19vs Predicted
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6Brown University4.30-1.31vs Predicted
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7University of Miami3.25+1.44vs Predicted
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8Washington College3.07+1.06vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.93+0.67vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-1.95vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College3.71-4.25vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-4.82vs Predicted
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13Tulane University1.42+1.71vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.01-1.18vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.10-6.05vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida3.49-8.51vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.30-1.77vs Predicted
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18Yale University1.64-3.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.91University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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7.37Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.49University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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8.92University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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9.19Boston University3.030.1%1st Place
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4.69Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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8.44University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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9.06Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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9.67University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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8.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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6.75Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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7.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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14.71Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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12.82Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.95Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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7.49University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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15.23George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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14.08Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Simmons | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 1.1% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Leif Evensen | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Willie McBride | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 0.6% |
| Ian Towill | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Tommy Fink | 16.0% | 15.5% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Howard | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| David Alfonso | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Philip Krause | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 19.3% | 29.4% |
| Edward Titcomb | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 14.6% | 15.6% | 9.7% |
| Jason Michas | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Will Stocke | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 19.8% | 35.9% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 19.2% | 19.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.