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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.93+8.82vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.10+7.27vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida3.49+4.66vs Predicted
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4Brown University4.30+0.72vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.56+2.22vs Predicted
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6University of Miami3.25+2.45vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.03+2.23vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01+4.94vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin3.31-0.87vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-0.75vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-3.09vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.93-1.96vs Predicted
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13Washington College3.07-4.05vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-7.41vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.30+0.11vs Predicted
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16Tulane University1.42-1.13vs Predicted
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17Yale University1.64-2.67vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College3.71-11.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.82University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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9.27Harvard University3.100.0%1st Place
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7.66University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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4.72Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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7.22Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.45University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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9.23Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
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12.94Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.13University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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9.25University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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7.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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10.04University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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8.95Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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6.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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15.11George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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14.87Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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14.33Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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6.53Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Simmons | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Jason Michas | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Will Stocke | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Tommy Fink | 16.1% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| William Howard | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Ian Towill | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Edward Titcomb | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 14.4% | 15.6% | 10.2% |
| Leif Evensen | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Willie McBride | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| David Alfonso | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Louis Padnos | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 19.5% | 33.0% |
| Philip Krause | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 20.7% | 28.4% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 20.4% | 21.6% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.