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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida3.49+6.67vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin3.31+6.40vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.71+3.83vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+3.66vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.56+2.20vs Predicted
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6University of Miami3.25+2.45vs Predicted
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7Brown University4.30-2.29vs Predicted
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8Washington College3.07+1.06vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.10+0.01vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-2.94vs Predicted
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11Tulane University1.42+3.85vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.93-1.98vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont2.93-3.49vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.03-5.01vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-5.94vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.01-2.83vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.30-1.79vs Predicted
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18Yale University1.64-3.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.67University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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8.4University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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6.83Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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7.66Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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7.2Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.45University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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4.71Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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9.06Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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9.01Harvard University3.100.0%1st Place
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7.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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14.85Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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10.02University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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9.51University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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8.99Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
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9.06University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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13.17Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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15.21George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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14.13Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stocke | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Leif Evensen | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| David Alfonso | 8.1% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 7.9% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| William Howard | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Tommy Fink | 15.6% | 17.3% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Jason Michas | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Louis Padnos | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Krause | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 8.7% | 14.2% | 19.5% | 29.9% |
| James Simmons | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Ian Towill | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Willie McBride | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| Edward Titcomb | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 14.4% | 15.7% | 10.3% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 20.5% | 34.6% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 21.1% | 18.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.