Race 4B

thompson

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Nathan Olmsted 8.5% 8.7% 8.5% 9.4% 8.0% 9.1% 8.7% 9.6% 9.0% 6.9% 6.6% 4.6% 2.4%
Aidan Hoogland 13.5% 14.5% 14.0% 10.4% 12.5% 8.2% 8.7% 6.2% 5.0% 3.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Riley Read 5.0% 5.7% 7.0% 8.3% 6.9% 9.8% 6.3% 10.6% 9.1% 9.7% 8.8% 7.3% 5.5%
Hannah Freeman 16.6% 15.4% 13.8% 11.1% 10.4% 8.8% 7.7% 6.3% 4.2% 3.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4%
Emma Snead 7.2% 5.9% 6.8% 7.1% 8.4% 7.8% 8.0% 7.6% 8.8% 11.3% 8.5% 7.4% 5.2%
Samuel Merson 9.9% 10.8% 10.5% 9.2% 10.4% 9.9% 8.6% 7.2% 7.3% 5.0% 6.3% 3.5% 1.4%
Nils Tullberg 5.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.6% 4.9% 5.1% 6.7% 8.2% 8.3% 8.9% 12.6% 12.4% 11.8%
Michael O'Flaherty 6.5% 8.1% 6.9% 8.8% 7.1% 9.2% 9.7% 7.6% 10.9% 8.7% 7.0% 6.3% 3.2%
Lourdes Gallo 3.2% 2.9% 2.5% 4.0% 4.6% 3.9% 5.2% 5.5% 6.8% 7.8% 13.0% 14.7% 25.9%
Kylie Castellano 6.7% 5.3% 5.9% 6.1% 6.8% 8.7% 7.6% 8.3% 9.0% 8.5% 9.6% 9.5% 8.0%
Daniel Unangst 10.8% 10.4% 10.9% 10.7% 9.5% 9.0% 9.5% 8.0% 7.1% 5.9% 4.2% 2.3% 1.7%
Grace Austin 4.7% 4.4% 5.1% 6.2% 6.4% 5.5% 8.9% 7.4% 8.1% 10.9% 9.5% 13.9% 9.0%
Anthony Root 2.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 4.1% 5.0% 4.4% 7.5% 6.4% 9.7% 10.4% 16.5% 25.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.