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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.71+5.88vs Predicted
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2Brown University4.30+2.82vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida3.49+4.68vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.81vs Predicted
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5Washington College3.07+4.10vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.93+3.73vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+0.80vs Predicted
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8University of Miami3.25+0.40vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin3.31-0.81vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.93-0.06vs Predicted
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11Tulane University1.42+3.76vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.30+3.38vs Predicted
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13Boston University3.03-3.86vs Predicted
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14Harvard University3.10-5.25vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.56-7.83vs Predicted
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16Yale University1.64-1.72vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-7.81vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.01-5.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.88Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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4.82Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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7.68University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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6.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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9.1Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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9.73University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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7.8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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8.4University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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8.19University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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9.94University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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14.76Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
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15.38George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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9.14Boston University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.75Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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7.17Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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14.28Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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9.19University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.1%1st Place
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12.96Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Brugman | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Fink | 12.8% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Stocke | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| James Simmons | 4.7% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| David Alfonso | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| William Howard | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Leif Evensen | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Philip Krause | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 14.9% | 21.6% | 26.8% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 18.4% | 37.4% |
| Ian Towill | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Jason Michas | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 21.1% | 19.0% |
| Willie McBride | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Edward Titcomb | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 15.3% | 9.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.