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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.93+8.92vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida3.49+5.63vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.03+6.45vs Predicted
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4Brown University4.30+0.64vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin3.31+3.09vs Predicted
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6University of Miami3.25+2.43vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.56+0.15vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.22vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.03vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College3.71-3.14vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.10-1.89vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.93-1.99vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.01-0.02vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.30+0.88vs Predicted
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15Yale University1.64-0.77vs Predicted
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16Washington College3.07-6.79vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-9.12vs Predicted
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18Tulane University1.42-3.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.92University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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7.63University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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9.45Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
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4.64Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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8.09University of Wisconsin3.310.1%1st Place
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8.43University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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7.15Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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6.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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9.03University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.0%1st Place
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6.86Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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9.11Harvard University3.100.1%1st Place
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10.01University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
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12.98Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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14.88George Washington University1.300.0%1st Place
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14.23Yale University1.640.0%1st Place
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9.21Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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7.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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14.74Tulane University1.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Simmons | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| Will Stocke | 5.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Ian Towill | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Tommy Fink | 17.2% | 16.2% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leif Evensen | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| William Howard | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Louis Padnos | 7.5% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Willie McBride | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 9.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jason Michas | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 0.9% |
| Edward Titcomb | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 14.7% | 11.5% |
| Nicholas Koeniger | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 18.8% | 32.1% |
| Nathan Stevens | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 19.4% | 20.7% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| David Alfonso | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Philip Krause | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 13.4% | 21.4% | 27.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.