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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College3.55+3.10vs Predicted
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2Boston University2.32+5.82vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.75+3.47vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.74+2.46vs Predicted
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5Bates College2.26+3.26vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.13-0.72vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.67-0.23vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.65-1.09vs Predicted
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9Amherst College2.01-0.07vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.21-1.52vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy1.30+0.27vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.74-5.20vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire1.81-3.09vs Predicted
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14Harvard University1.67-3.90vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University0.82-2.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.1Boston College3.550.2%1st Place
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7.82Boston University2.320.1%1st Place
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6.47Tufts University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.46University of Vermont2.740.1%1st Place
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8.26Bates College2.260.1%1st Place
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5.28Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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6.77Connecticut College2.670.1%1st Place
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6.91Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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8.93Amherst College2.010.0%1st Place
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8.48Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
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11.27Maine Maritime Academy1.300.0%1st Place
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6.8Bowdoin College2.740.1%1st Place
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9.91University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
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10.1Harvard University1.670.0%1st Place
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12.44Northeastern University0.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mullins | 19.4% | 20.0% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Ian Paice | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| James Altreuter | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Hunter Mumma | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| David Pierce | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Trevor Burd | 11.6% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Max Rollins | 9.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Phoebe Sprague | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Black | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 4.1% |
| Erica Lush | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 3.8% |
| Max Fleischfresser | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 19.2% | 20.7% |
| Tom Peabody | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Neal Drake | 2.7% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 10.5% |
| Nick Waldo | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 9.9% |
| Matthew Wood | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 16.3% | 42.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.