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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.22+6.24vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.68+4.44vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+4.94vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.38+3.13vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+3.02vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.07+5.93vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.73-0.88vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+4.91vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.05+2.92vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.14+0.74vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.48-4.83vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.73-7.19vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.02-5.22vs Predicted
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14Olin College of Engineering0.22+0.14vs Predicted
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15Brown University1.86-5.60vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.20-5.02vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45-7.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.24Tufts University2.227.5%1st Place
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6.44Roger Williams University2.6810.0%1st Place
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7.94University of Rhode Island2.786.5%1st Place
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7.13Dartmouth College2.387.2%1st Place
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8.02Bowdoin College2.386.6%1st Place
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11.93Northeastern University1.071.9%1st Place
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6.12Brown University2.7310.4%1st Place
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12.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.081.7%1st Place
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11.92University of Vermont1.051.5%1st Place
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10.74Boston University1.142.9%1st Place
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6.17Harvard University2.489.2%1st Place
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4.81Yale University2.7315.3%1st Place
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7.78Boston College2.026.6%1st Place
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14.14Olin College of Engineering0.220.7%1st Place
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9.4Brown University1.864.7%1st Place
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10.98Connecticut College1.203.0%1st Place
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9.32Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.454.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Mueller | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| William Michels | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 11.7% |
| Guthrie Braun | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 18.4% | 19.4% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 12.7% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 5.7% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 15.3% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| James Jagielski | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 16.4% | 37.5% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Skylor Sweet | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 6.5% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.