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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.67+5.62vs Predicted
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2Boston University2.32+5.77vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.13+2.21vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.55+0.16vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.65+1.94vs Predicted
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6Amherst College2.01+3.06vs Predicted
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7Harvard University1.67+3.06vs Predicted
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8Bates College2.26+0.20vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire1.81+0.66vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.75-3.42vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.74-4.35vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.74-5.22vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.21-4.38vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University0.82-1.52vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy1.30-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62Connecticut College2.670.1%1st Place
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7.77Boston University2.320.1%1st Place
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5.21Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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4.16Boston College3.550.2%1st Place
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6.94Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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9.06Amherst College2.010.0%1st Place
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10.06Harvard University1.670.0%1st Place
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8.2Bates College2.260.1%1st Place
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9.66University of New Hampshire1.810.0%1st Place
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6.58Tufts University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.65Bowdoin College2.740.1%1st Place
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6.78University of Vermont2.740.1%1st Place
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8.62Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
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12.48Northeastern University0.820.0%1st Place
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11.21Maine Maritime Academy1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Rollins | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Ian Paice | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| Trevor Burd | 12.8% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Mullins | 19.3% | 17.4% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Phoebe Sprague | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Black | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 4.7% |
| Nick Waldo | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 13.2% |
| David Pierce | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 2.7% |
| Neal Drake | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 7.4% |
| James Altreuter | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Tom Peabody | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Hunter Mumma | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Erica Lush | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| Matthew Wood | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 10.4% | 16.9% | 39.9% |
| Max Fleischfresser | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 18.1% | 22.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.